I appreciate you are writing a structural piece not cyclical but most of this is well known.
China is now 3 years into the controlled demolition of its property sector and maybe another 2/3 years to get out. This doesn't preclude a cyclical bull market in Chinese equities.
The Chinese government is trying to stop the decline with its recent actions not go back to the "good old days" as they know this type of debt driven malinvestment goes nowhere.
Their recent actions and stimulus are an attempt to stop consumer confidence falling further and galvanize some of the over US20 Trillion in household savings to be spent.
Whether that is successful, remains to be seen, but we think there is a good chance it does stop the rot.
Thank you. Great piece and some good stats.
I appreciate you are writing a structural piece not cyclical but most of this is well known.
China is now 3 years into the controlled demolition of its property sector and maybe another 2/3 years to get out. This doesn't preclude a cyclical bull market in Chinese equities.
The Chinese government is trying to stop the decline with its recent actions not go back to the "good old days" as they know this type of debt driven malinvestment goes nowhere.
Their recent actions and stimulus are an attempt to stop consumer confidence falling further and galvanize some of the over US20 Trillion in household savings to be spent.
Whether that is successful, remains to be seen, but we think there is a good chance it does stop the rot.
Excellent work Alex.